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The warmest summer on record: 2026 hit a scorching new high in the US

If this summer felt hotter than usual, you're not alone. As it turns out, this past summer was the hottest on record in the United States.

This is the hottest that summer in the U.S. has been in at least 132 years. Specifically, the temperatures rose to 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.67 degrees Celsius) above average, beating out the most recent record set in 2021 of 0.4 degrees F (0.22 degrees C) above average, according to a new report from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). And looking month-to-month, this was also the hottest August we've ever seen.

The record-breaking season saw unmatched temperature highs across the contiguous U.S. (all of the adjoining states, excluding Alaska and Hawaii which just aren't a part of this record) from June through August. But scorching temperatures aren't all that this new record reveals, as this summer was also one of the driest on record for the contiguous U.S., with more than half of the country in a drought by September. The summer of 2026 saw both extreme precipitation highs and lows across the country, too. From droughts to heavy rain, there was nothing average about the precipitation seen across the U.S. this summer.

A closer look

Digging into some of the details, the full summer was 3 degrees F above the average for the season, 74.4 degrees F (23.5 degrees C). August was 3.5 degrees F (1.94 degrees C) above average for the month at 75.6 F (24.2 C). And while most of the contiguous U.S. experienced well above average temperatures this summer, some locations felt the heat the most. The Southwest, the southern Rockies, the southwestern Plains, southern Florida, California, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado hit particularly high temperatures this August.

Looking at the summer's unusual precipitation levels, the total precipitation across the contiguous U.S. was 0.32 inches (0.8 centimeters) below average, making this past summer the third driest on record, and the driest summer since 2000. By Sept. 1, 59.1% of the country was in drought. There was drought across the West, the upper Midwest, the Deep South and more. Over 75% of Puerto Rico lie in drought conditions as well, with 40% being in "extreme drought." And while summer might be ending, a lot of this drought is projected to continue, according to the report from NOAA. When it comes to drier lands, that also means an increased risk of wildfire.

Though these temperature differences might seem small or relatively mild at face value, they have massive consequences. As climate change progresses primarily due to greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities like transportation and manufacturing, we continue to see a whole host of its effects across the world. This ranges from rising average temperatures and glacial ice loss to sea level rise and worsening natural disasters. Those natural disasters include events like flooding, hurricanes, wildfires and cyclones.

While different areas of the world will experience different effects of global warming, one thing remains true for all: The consequences will only continue to worsen as our planet warms.

Weather and climate events that took place in the U.S. in August, 2026.

This infographic shows some of the weather and climate events that took place in the U.S. during August, 2026. (Image credit: NOAA)

If we just look at this past August 2026 in the U.S., not only did we see record-high temperatures, but also weather and climate disasters of all varieties. Fires broke out over 10,000 acres of eastern Washington, even spreading across the state and into Oregon. More fires, in fact, spread across Nevada and Alaska while wind gusts up to 111 miles per hour (178.6 kilometers per hour) tore across South Dakota. A heatwave brought sweltering temperatures to south Florida and Hurricane Lala brought intense winds, rain and flooding to Hawaii;. And these are just a few of the many examples — from just this last month.

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We’re about to exceed 1.5-degree global warming limit, according to the UN

Global warming will soon cross a critical threshold, surpassing a dangerous limit set years ago, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has found. But experts say it's still possible to cool things back down, emphasizing that the stakes are too high to stop trying.

In 2015, 196 nations and territories signed the Paris Agreement, pledging to restrict the average rise of global temperatures to below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. Ideally, the rise was meant to be kept to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) above those levels. However, according to a new report detailed by the UNEP, we are on track to cross that 1.5 C line — and soon.

"This summer's scorching heat, raging wildfires and deadly floods are a warning of what lies ahead. We must make the overshoot above 1.5 degrees as small and short as possible. That demands an overshoot of ambition," U.N. Secretary-General Antőnio Guterres said in a statement.

According to the new report, experts have found that if we as a planet continue with business as usual, not only will we pass 1.5 C, but it will happen within just a few years. The report, however, maintained a positive tone. Rather than simply predicting a doomsday plot, the main purpose of this release is to outline a pathway with the necessary steps to set things on the right track.

"As global temperature rise gets set to cross 1.5°C, pushing climate risks and impacts to dangerous new heights, the world must strive to return to below 1.5°C as soon as possible and simultaneously reduce the vulnerability of societies, communities and economies to climate impacts," the report, titled "Limiting Overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return," states in its abstract.

Climate change is primarily caused and driven by human activities like transportation, industrial manufacturing, agriculture and more. According to the report, the two main aspects of this work need to be: reducing emissions and enabling adaptations to protect people impacted by the effects of climate change.

The U.N. states in the report the necessity of both an immediate and sustained reduction in the emissions of greenhouse gases like methane and carbon dioxide. Not only do we need to find a way to cut emissions fairly immediately, but we also need to find a way to sustain that effort over time. The U.N. further states it is important to not only work toward removing carbon from the atmosphere, eventually reaching net-negative emissions where more emissions are removed by humans from the atmosphere than added to the atmosphere.

This sort of carbon capture technology is still fairly early in its development, but according to the U.N., it is essential we find ways to rapidly move toward a future where we can capture and store carbon from the air and therefore reduce the quantity of greenhouse gases around our planet.

In addition to these long-term emission reduction actions, in this report the U.N. has also asserted that this process will need to include "adaptation actions," or ways to support the many people and communities already affected by climate change.

Even if all of the world's nations start working immediately to drastically reduce emissions, we are already seeing the sometimes fatal and irreversible effects of climate change. From increasing the intensity of wildfire seasons to worsening natural disasters, climate change is far from a distant future. It's our reality, especially for those living in high-risk areas like coastlines. So, while the nations of the world need to work together to reduce emissions, it is also important that adaptations are found to reduce the existing and future impacts of climate change on our communities.

"There are no good outcomes if we remain above 1.5°C. Across the globe, extreme heatwaves are already proving that climate impacts will strike faster, hit harder, and last longer — costing more lives and causing deeper disruption," Inger Andersen, the Executive Director of UNEP, said in the same statement. "Now is the time we must double down on climate action. We can — and must — get on the right path. By cutting greenhouse gas emissions, strengthening resilience and adaptation, and ensuring exceedance of 1.5°C is as small and short as possible."

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Global warming already causing crop losses of over $20 billion a year

The economies of countries where many people work in farming will be hit the hardest
Imago/Alamy

Global warming-fuelled heat and drought is already hitting yields of maize, wheat and soybeans to the tune of $20 billion a year, a study has estimated. This could rise eightfold, to more than $160 billion by 2100, unless we slash emissions.

While the financial losses will be greatest for big producers such as the US, the impacts will be felt most in the lowest-income countries, where the majority of the population works in farming, says Yi Ling Hwong at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria. “If you look at the least-developed countries in Africa, the impact is much bigger.” This could lead to social unrest and increased migration, she warns.

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There is great uncertainty about these kinds of projections, not least because so much depends on how farmers respond and adapt to a continually changing climate, for instance, by switching to different crops or adopting irrigation where it is possible. In fact, the whole point of this study is to raise awareness and encourage adaptation, to help ensure these projections turn out to be overestimates, says team member Kai Kornhuber, also at IIASA. “This is the entire mission of climate scientists: we make these cases for people to react, so our projections turn out to be wrong.”

The researchers started by gathering data on the yields per country of maize, wheat and soya from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Next, they took past climate data and calculated the drought level, using a standard approach that estimates soil moisture levels from rainfall and evaporation levels.

Past heat extremes and drought levels were then compared with the yields from 1974 to 2004 to estimate the impact of heat and drought. They then used these statistical correlations to estimate crop losses from 2007 to 2019. Their results suggest that increases in heat extremes and drought have caused a 3.5 per cent decline in yields relative to the 1974 to 2004 baseline. “Three per cent or so might not sound like much, but this is a major impact [on] the global food market, which regionally can trigger a severe crisis,” says Kornhuber.

The researchers then calculated the economic losses, based on FAO data showing how much farmers would have been paid for their produce at the time. Finally, they used the same approach to project future losses in several different emissions scenarios, assuming that some adaptation takes place.

In a high-emissions scenario, known as SSP3-7.0, global yields will fall by around 35 per cent by 2100, with annual losses rising to more than $161 billion. “The production losses caused by heat and drought are around 855 million tonnes a year,” says Hwong, who presented the results at a meeting of the European Geosciences Union in Vienna in May. “I think that is equivalent to what around 2 billion people consume over a year.”

This could be an underestimate of the full impact of climate change for a number of reasons: it’s just three crops, and it doesn’t include flood, storm or rain damage, or the possibility that shortages could lead to big price increases, as is already happening with some other crops such as coffee and cacao.

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Jonas Jägermeyr at Columbia University in New York says the study’s reliance on the statistical relationships between yield losses and extreme heat and drought could result in it overestimating the impacts by 2100. “Statistical yield models are great for explaining what’s happening now, and in the near past [or] future, but they are inherently unreliable when pushed into vastly different environmental regimes, such as high-emission climate scenarios by the end of the century.” Computer models of how plants are affected by rising CO2 and temperatures are better for projecting what will happen by the end of the century, he says.

Karine Chenu at the University of Queensland, Australia, makes the same point. “Although models are not perfect, they are better suited for this type of extrapolation.” However, her team recently released a study, which hasn’t been peer-reviewed, showing that two widely used models for wheat make large errors and are especially poor at forecasting the combined effects of extreme heat and drought.

But Kornhuber has defended his team’s use of statistical methods. “The models are remarkable tools, but some of the validation papers have suggested that they might not be super responsive to extremes,” he says. “In our project, extremes were the main focus, so we decided to establish these relationships directly through statistics.”

Reference:

EGU General Assembly 2026 DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8148